Alberta Premier Danielle Smith recently provided an update on the province’s ongoing efforts to explore exiting the Canada Pension Plan (CPP). The province has received feedback from Canada’s chief actuary but still awaits a definitive estimate of how much Alberta would be entitled to if it leaves the national retirement fund.
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No Firm Number Yet from Chief Actuary
Premier Smith shared her government’s disappointment that the chief actuary’s report did not include a specific figure or formula for calculating Alberta’s share of the CPP. Alberta had expected precise analyses from the actuary’s office.
“We’re a bit disappointed because we were under the impression that the chief actuary was hiring three different analysts to look at the legislation to provide three very precise ways of calculating this issue,” Smith said at a press conference in Calgary.
The Alberta government plans to follow up on the issue after anticipated federal cabinet changes. Finance Minister Nate Horner’s office confirmed they are still analyzing the report and will provide further updates soon.
Federal Response on CPP Legislation
According to the federal Finance Department, a report sent to provinces in November outlined the chief actuary’s interpretation of CPP legislation concerning asset transfers if a province leaves the plan. However, the department did not comment on Alberta’s request for a specific estimate.
Federal and provincial discussions on next steps are expected in the coming weeks.
Alberta’s Initial Estimate vs. National Projections
The Alberta government estimates it would be entitled to $334 billion — over half the CPP’s total assets. In contrast, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board has pegged Alberta’s share closer to $100 billion.
Smith has emphasized the importance of clarity, stating, “If [the amount] doesn’t allow for us to significantly reduce premiums or give a rebate to existing pensioners, then Albertans might decide it isn’t worth it.”
On the other hand, a substantial transfer could enable Alberta to reduce contributions while increasing pension payouts, potentially swaying public opinion in favor of exiting the CPP.
Public Opinion and Referendum Plans
The proposal to leave the CPP has faced resistance. Public consultations on the issue were paused last year after demands for an agreed-upon estimate grew louder.
Smith’s United Conservative Party government won the 2023 election partly on the promise of exploring a provincial pension plan. However, public opinion remains mixed. A 2020 Fair Deal panel found that only 42% of Albertans believed a provincial pension plan would improve Alberta’s position in Canada.
Despite opposition, grassroots members of Smith’s party continue to push for action. The government has indicated that any move forward will require a referendum, ensuring Albertans have a direct say in the decision.
Privacy Concerns and Public Feedback
Efforts to gather public input on the pension issue have sparked privacy concerns. Alberta’s privacy commissioner recently opened investigations following media reports that some public consultation data had been withheld under freedom of information requests.
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What’s Next?
Premier Smith has reiterated her commitment to securing a clear estimate from the federal government. “Once things stabilize a bit in Ottawa, I’ll be asking my finance minister to follow up,” she said.
As Alberta analyzes the report and waits for further discussions with federal officials, the debate over a potential Alberta Pension Plan remains a pivotal issue for both the provincial government and its citizens.
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