Last year’s holiday season in Southern Ontario left snow lovers disappointed, with unseasonably warm weather putting a damper on hopes for a white Christmas. However, winter 2024-2025 is shaping up to be colder and snowier overall, giving the region a fighting chance to look like a winter wonderland come December 25.
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Mixed Long-Range Forecasts for Southern Ontario
Early winter forecasts remain uncertain, with predictions offering varied outlooks:
- Some forecasters are calling for “a whirlwind of snow.”
- Others suggest that winter will “redeem its reputation.”
- However, some recent projections estimate that colder temperatures might not settle in until after the holidays.
The uncertainty makes it hard to pin down what the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) can expect specifically on Christmas Day.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac Outlook: A Warm Holiday Week?
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac 60-day outlook:
- From December 20 to 28, Southern Ontario could see “sunny and warm weather.”
- Rain or snow showers are possible in the days leading up to Christmas, but temperatures may not drop significantly until December 29.
Despite the warmth, the Almanac still predicts above-average precipitation in December (80 mm total) and an average temperature of -2°C. While this is two degrees warmer than usual, it’s still cold enough for snow to stick if conditions align.
The Weather Network Forecast: A Dusting Possible in the GTA
The Weather Network’s (TWN) two-week forecast paints a slightly brighter picture for snow lovers:
- Minimal precipitation is expected around Christmas Day in Toronto.
- However, snow is possible on December 19-20, followed by below-zero temperatures.
While not a definitive sign of a white Christmas, even a light dusting remains possible if weather patterns shift—a common occurrence in the unpredictable Ontario winter.
Historic Odds of a White Christmas in Toronto
According to Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), the likelihood of a white Christmas in Toronto has dropped over the past few decades.
- Historically: Toronto had a 68% chance of snow on Christmas Day.
- Now: That number has dropped to 40% over the last 25 years.
ECCC meteorologist Geoff Coulson explains that it’s all about the conditions in the week leading up to Christmas:
“Even if there’s mild weather around Christmas, a solid snowfall earlier in the week could stick around—depending on how temperatures play out.”
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Snowy Spots: Lake Huron and Georgian Bay Regions
While Toronto’s chances remain uncertain, areas around Lake Huron and Georgian Bay are already buried under significant snowfall. Locations like Gravenhurst, which recently declared a state of emergency, are far more likely to enjoy a white Christmas.
Don’t Give Up on a White Christmas Yet
For Toronto and much of Southern Ontario, a white Christmas remains a coin toss. All it takes is one cold system or a timely snowfall in the days leading up to December 25 to tip the odds in favor of festive white surroundings.
So, keep those mittens and waterproof coats ready. Even with warming trends working against us, winter has a way of surprising us—especially in Ontario!
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