GST Break Could Lead to $2.7B Loss for Ottawa If Provinces Don’t Waive Compensation: PBO

GST Break Could Lead to $2.7B Loss for Ottawa If Provinces Don't Waive Compensation: PBO

The federal government’s upcoming Goods and Services Tax (GST) holiday is expected to cost as much as $2.7 billion, according to the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO). This estimate hinges on whether provinces with a harmonized sales tax (HST) choose to seek compensation for their share of the lost revenue. However, the decision of some provinces not to ask for compensation significantly reduces the financial burden on Ottawa.

Key Details of the GST Holiday

From December 14 to February 15, the Liberal government plans to lift the federal GST on a variety of goods and services, offering relief to Canadians facing affordability challenges. The holiday will affect items such as children’s clothing, video games, and restaurant meals.

All Canadians will benefit from at least a 5% tax break, as the federal sales tax is removed. However, in provinces like Ontario and those in the Atlantic region, where the provincial and federal sales taxes are combined into a harmonized sales tax (HST), the savings will be even greater—ranging from 13% to 15%.

Cost of the GST Holiday

The PBO estimates that the tax break will cost Ottawa approximately $1.5 billion, which aligns with the federal government’s own projection of $1.6 billion. However, this figure could rise to $2.7 billion if provinces with an HST do not waive the compensation requirement outlined in their agreements with Ottawa.

Ontario’s Stance on Compensation

Ontario, which stands to lose the most revenue from the HST holiday, has confirmed it will not seek compensation. According to Colin Blachar, a spokesperson for Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy, this decision will provide nearly $1 billion in additional relief for Ontario families.

Other Provinces’ Reactions

Other provinces, such as Prince Edward Island (P.E.I.) and Newfoundland and Labrador, have also opted not to request compensation, aligning with Ontario’s stance. Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland’s office expressed hope that all provinces will follow suit, helping to provide broader relief to Canadian families across the nation.

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Saskatchewan, however, has indicated it will not join the GST holiday. Premier Scott Moe cited the impact on municipal funding and pointed to other provincial measures, such as reducing personal income taxes and removing the carbon levy from home heating, as alternative forms of cost relief.

The federal GST holiday is part of a broader effort by the Liberal government to provide economic relief during the holiday season. While the cost of the initiative could potentially reach $2.7 billion, provincial decisions to waive compensation could significantly reduce the financial burden on Ottawa, allowing Canadians to benefit from a meaningful tax break during these challenging times.

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