The Canadian dollar, also known as the loonie, faced its third consecutive day of losses on Thursday as political uncertainty and trade concerns weighed on investor sentiment. Market watchers are awaiting key domestic employment data to gauge the direction of the Canadian economy.
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Canadian Dollar Slides as Markets Await Jobs Data
The loonie traded 0.1% lower, reaching 1.4390 per U.S. dollar, or 69.49 U.S. cents. During the session, it fluctuated within a range of 1.4366 to 1.4404.
Investors are closely monitoring Canada’s December employment data, set for release on Friday. Analysts expect the report to show an addition of 25,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate rising slightly to 6.9%, compared to 6.8% in November.
Trudeau’s Decision to Suspend Parliament Sparks Concerns
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Monday that he would step down in the coming months and that Canada’s parliament would be prorogued until March 24. This political decision has sparked uncertainty at a critical economic juncture.
“Risk sentiment is a bit softer, equities are lower, and the U.S. dollar is broadly higher,” said Erik Bregar, director of FX & precious metals risk management at Silver Gold Bull. “Trudeau’s decision to prorogue parliament is not really coming off well. Markets are basically in limbo now for two and a half to three months, while the threat of tariffs looms.”
U.S. Tariff Threats Could Push Canada Toward Recession
Adding to the economic headwinds, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has proposed imposing steep tariffs on trade partners, including a 25% tax on Canadian imports.
Economists warn that such a tariff could have a severe impact on Canada’s economy. According to Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, a 25% tariff on Canadian goods could slash the nation’s GDP by nearly 3%, potentially plunging the economy into a recession.
In response, Canada is reportedly considering retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, including orange juice, as a countermeasure.
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Loonie’s Outlook: Limited Recovery Expected
A recent Reuters poll suggests the Canadian dollar may recover only modestly in the coming months, as the threat of U.S. tariffs continues to cloud the economic outlook.
Canadian Bond Yields Edge Higher
Meanwhile, Canadian 10-year bond yields rose 1.1 basis points to 3.347%, hovering near a six-week high. This reflects ongoing uncertainty in financial markets amid political and economic concerns.
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