Ontario’s ambitious housing development plan has taken a serious hit as new data reveals a sharp decline in single-family home construction. According to the Financial Accountability Office of Ontario (FAO), housing starts for single-family homes are at their lowest levels since 1955. This worrying trend threatens the Ford government’s commitment to build 1.5 million new homes by 2031, a promise that was a cornerstone of its 2022 election campaign.
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Startling Numbers Highlight the Struggle
The FAO’s economic summary indicates that housing starts between April and September 2024 were down by 17% compared to the same period last year. During these key construction months, Ontario managed only 20,600 new units, falling below the four-year average of 22,900. The drop is especially severe in traditional single-family home developments, which have failed to gain momentum.
“Construction of single detached homes has been weak so far in 2024 and is on track for the lowest level of annual starts on record back to 1955,” the FAO report states. The government had initially aimed for 88,000 housing starts in 2024, but recent projections have downgraded that figure to 81,000, far short of the 125,000 needed to stay on track for the 2031 goal.
Mounting Challenges for the Ford Government
To meet the 1.5 million homes target, Ontario now needs to achieve an average of 39,900 new units per quarter, a 74% increase in construction speed compared to 2021. This would require exceeding the historical peak of 34,400 housing starts, recorded in 1973’s third quarter. In light of these daunting statistics, Ontario Housing Minister Paul Calandra remains optimistic, vowing to remove obstacles and achieve the set target. “We will not fail in the goal of building 1.5 million homes,” he declared on October 31.
However, critics argue otherwise. Ontario Liberal MPP Adil Shamji called the target unrealistic and accused the Ford government of making excuses. He pointed out that housing construction has lagged regardless of fluctuations in interest rates, which have been cited as a contributing factor.
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Experts Urge Focus on Midrise Developments
Environmental Defence, a climate advocacy group, released a separate report highlighting the need for medium-height buildings in urban areas. The group suggests that prioritizing midrise developments along major streets could be a more sustainable and effective way to address Ontario’s housing shortage. This approach would better balance the housing need with environmental concerns, unlike the current strategy that relies heavily on sprawling single-family home developments.
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Ontario’s housing crisis remains a contentious issue, with the province’s future hanging in the balance as policymakers, builders, and community groups grapple with finding viable solutions. Whether the Ford government’s ambitious targets can be achieved will depend on overcoming the significant challenges laid bare by the latest FAO report.
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