The limits of U.S. President Donald Trump’s belligerent and extremely personalized diplomatic style were starkly illustrated this week. Despite his aggressive posturing, two of the world’s deadliest ongoing conflicts—one in Gaza and the other in Ukraine—remain unresolved, with little to show for his interventions.
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In Gaza, the fragile ceasefire was shattered by Israel’s military on Tuesday, resulting in the deadliest day of the war for Palestinians since its onset in October 2023. Meanwhile, Trump’s phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin yielded few tangible results in terms of halting Russia’s relentless three-year assault on Ukraine. These outcomes were predictable, according to veteran diplomats, due to Trump’s obsession with immediate wins at the expense of long-term diplomatic efforts.
Unrealistic Expectations and the Drive for Quick Wins
Trump’s diplomacy often prioritizes quick fixes over sustained negotiations, something that has become clear as the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine continue to escalate. “He’s imposing timelines that are unrealistic and also imposing terms that won’t be followed,” said Louise Blais, a former Canadian diplomat and ambassador to the United Nations. “He’s an ‘instant gratification president’—he lacks the patience required for diplomacy.”
Despite these shortcomings, Trump’s foreign policy team attempted to frame the week’s events as successes. Officials claimed that the phone call with Putin would lead to further peace talks between the U.S. and Russia in Saudi Arabia and that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had agreed to a truce on energy strikes. However, these claims have been met with skepticism.
Over-promising, Under-delivering: Trump’s Familiar Pattern
Trump’s actions in recent weeks have followed a familiar pattern: over-promising and under-delivering. Blais noted, “You can’t bring parties like Ukraine and Russia or Hamas and Netanyahu to common ground overnight. It just doesn’t happen.” Yet, Trump’s attempts to resolve such conflicts have often been framed as though rapid, drastic change was achievable, especially when he publicly pressured Ukrainian leadership to concede before even negotiating with Putin.
Even as the death toll in Gaza rose, the Trump administration was conspicuously quiet about pressing Israel to cease its offensive. Unlike when the first ceasefire was brokered in January, the White House didn’t push Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to adhere to the original ceasefire plan. It seems that Netanyahu correctly predicted Trump’s lack of commitment to a sustained peace effort, especially after initial ceasefires were agreed upon.
Trump’s ‘Madman Theory’ and Its Shortcomings
Some analysts argue that Trump’s “madman theory”—whereby he aims to intimidate adversaries through unpredictability—might have merit in some situations. Julie Norman, an International Relations professor at University College London, suggests that this type of leadership can be effective in breaking deadlocks but falls short in complex, long-lasting conflicts that require careful negotiation and consistency.
Trump’s unpredictable approach was famously applied to his dealings with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un, where his aggressive tactics failed to yield results despite multiple meetings. Norman argues that Trump’s style is ill-suited for the nuanced, protracted wars in Gaza and Ukraine. “These conflicts require precision, time, and attention to detail—qualities that Trump has yet to demonstrate in his foreign diplomacy.”
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A Limited Vision: Trump’s Focus on Short-term Deals
Trump’s attention appears to be drawn more to his relationship with Russia and Putin than to resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict. Although his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, continues to act as a mediator, Trump’s long-term vision for resolving the Gaza conflict remains unclear. His earlier suggestion that Palestinians should be evicted from Gaza and the land turned into a real estate project was a drastic proposal that he later walked back, but it highlights the superficial nature of his approach.
Similarly, in Ukraine, Trump’s push to re-establish economic and political ties with Russia, regardless of the ongoing war, suggests a preference for maintaining business relations over meaningful peace efforts. His failure to articulate a clear strategy for resolving the violence in Gaza and Ukraine shows that his leadership may not be up to the task of ending these conflicts.
The Future of Trump’s Diplomatic Efforts: More Promises, Fewer Results
As the conflict in Gaza intensifies and Russia’s war on Ukraine rages on, Trump’s diplomatic approach remains unpredictable, and his promises often ring hollow. His style of leadership, characterized by brash moves and quick fixes, doesn’t lend itself to lasting peace. When his over-promises inevitably fail to materialize, it’s unlikely that Trump will take responsibility. Instead, as he’s done in the past, he will likely blame others for his shortcomings.
Trump’s diplomacy in both Gaza and Ukraine shows that while bold, attention-grabbing tactics can attract headlines, they rarely lead to long-term success. As these crises continue, it will become increasingly clear that strongman diplomacy—rooted in unpredictability and an unwillingness to engage in the slow, painstaking work of peacemaking—can only take a leader so far.
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