Gold has long been a symbol of wealth and security, with its value often rising during times of uncertainty. As the spot price of gold hits new all-time highs, many investors are asking whether this trend will continue in the long term. Will gold remain a safe haven for investors, or is the market at risk of overheating?
The Current State of Gold Discovery and Supply
Recent reports show that gold discoveries have been increasing, though many of these assets were found decades ago. According to an S&P analysis, between 1990 and 2023, 350 gold deposits were discovered, containing a total of about 2.9 billion ounces of gold—representing a modest 3% rise from the previous year. However, only five of these discoveries were truly new, contributing just 22% of the 79 million ounces added to the 2024 update. This indicates that while gold reserves are still growing, new finds are becoming rarer.
Peak Gold Production and Future Outlook
According to S&P research, gold supply is expected to peak in 2026 at 110 million ounces, driven largely by increased production in countries like Australia, Canada, and the U.S. These regions also account for the largest share of discovered gold. However, the global supply is expected to dip to just 103 million ounces by 2028, which may signal a tightening of gold availability over the next few decades
The Gold Coin Market: A Modest Markup
As gold prices rise, the market for gold coins continues to evolve. Collectors Corner recently listed a range of gold coins, including 1,291 Liberty and 895 Saint Gaudens $20 Double Eagles for sale. These coins, many of which are from more common dates, offer investors access to gold at a slight premium above spot prices. For instance, while spot gold peaked at $2,595 per ounce, APMEX was selling Gold American Eagles for around $2,702—marking up the bullion value by about 4%. Even rare coins, like the Mint State 62 slabbed Liberty and Saint Gaudens $20 coins, come with relatively modest premiums of $2,825 and $2,745, respectively
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Is Gold a Sustainable Investment?
While gold prices are currently at historic highs, the long-term value of gold coins remains uncertain. The limited new discoveries and predicted decline in supply could support higher gold prices in the future. However, the true sustainability of gold as an investment is unclear. For collectors and investors alike, it’s essential to weigh the risks and benefits, especially in the face of a tightening gold market and modest premiums on coinage.
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